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Bush Is Losing Moderate Republicans« Thread Started on Jun 8

Daily newsbrief journal for June 2006, also see http://www.usdemocrats.com/brief for a global 100-page perpetual brief and follow twitter @usdemocrats


Bush Is Losing Moderate Republicans« Thread Started on Jun 8

Postby admin » Fri Jan 27, 2012 8:46 am

Bush Is Losing Moderate Republicans« Thread Started on Jun 8, 2006, 7:08am »--------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bush Is Losing Moderate Republicansby Joe Gandelmanread source: http://www.themoderatevoice.com/posts/1149662254.shtml We've said it many times over the past few months when people have emailed us and said "how can you call yourself a moderate" when we've criticized the Bush administration, so we'll say it again:It's getting to the point where you cannot be a moderate and support the Bush administration.And, according to the Pew Research Center, that's precisely what's happening in President George Bush's part as well:As public approval of George W. Bush languishes at all-time low levels, supporters of the president are increasingly hard to find. In the months following his re-election, roughly half of the country rated Bush's job performance favorably. Today only a third of Americans do so, while more than half (56%) disapprove of his performance. These latest figures are based on a Pew Research Center survey conducted April 27-May 22, among a national sample of 3,204 adults, a large enough survey to allow for a more detailed breakdown of where and how opinion has changed since the election.While the decline in support transcends ideological and demographic lines, the drop among one group – moderate Republicans – has been especially steep. Among all Republicans, Bush's job approval rating has dropped 20 percentage points since December 2004 (from 89% to 69%). This erosion of support has been most severe among Republicans describing themselves as moderate or liberal, where his rating has dropped 25 points from 81% to 56%.Conservative Republican support for Bush has also declined, but more gradually. Approval among this group was nearly unanimous (93%) following his re-election, and stands 15 points lower at 78% today.But there are far more conservatives than moderates in the GOP; as many as two-thirds of Republicans identify themselves as conservative. This means that even though the drop off in their support has been more gradual, the implications are no less serious. Translated into real numbers, just as many conservative Republicans as moderate and liberal Republicans have grown frustrated with the president's leadership over the past year-and-a-half. While a much larger share of moderate and liberal Republicans disapprove of the president, they make up only a minority of the GOP. That's why we're seeing the political ballet over a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, even thought virtually everyone knows it is going to flop. And that's also why Congressional and Bush action on illegal immigration ain't over 'til it's over: there could be a hardening of the stances before this is over. Bush and the GOP need that conservative base. Why? Because Bush and his party did NOT reach out to other elements in the American polity that would have allowed them to put together a coalition that could still be workable if one component of it was missing.The question then becomes: can the Democrats attract some of these wavering GOP moderates (and there are not many around) or liberals (and there are fewer of those around)? Or is what we're seeing in the GOP, and in the Democratic party where many on the left want Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman's political scalp, part of a process where moderates must decide ASAP on whether they want to be on the right or on the left — or be seen as irrelevant?
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