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GOP resonance with Catholics could well be slip-sliding away

Daily newsbrief journal for April 2006, also see http://www.usdemocrats.com/brief for a global 100-page perpetual brief and follow twitter @usdemocrats


GOP resonance with Catholics could well be slip-sliding away

Postby admin » Fri Jan 27, 2012 8:10 am

GOP resonance with Catholics could well be slip-sliding away« Thread Started on Apr 21, 2006, 1:17am » --------------------------------------------------------------------------------GOP resonance with Catholics could well be slip-sliding awayFeatured Advertiser read source: http://fredericksburg.com/News/FLS/2006 ... /181864GOP could be losing Catholic support Date published: 4/20/2006 FAIRFAX--Catholics are often referred to as the "swing vote" in American politics. At one-fourth of the voting population, they are indeed a loud voice in electoral campaigns, although not a unified one. Once a reliable part of the old New Deal coalition that anchored the Democratic Party for years, in the past quarter-century Catholics have moved increasingly toward the GOP. The loosening of Democratic ties and the movement toward the GOP for many Catholics have largely been the result of two factors: economic success and the issue of abortion. First, Catholics used to be largely members of the immigrant underclass that moved to the inner cities, joined labor unions, and voted Democratic. But as their children and grandchildren became better educated, achieved economic success, and moved to the suburbs, these newer generations of voters started warming up to the GOP. Second, beginning in the 1970s with the open embrace of abortion rights by the Democrats and Roe v. Wade, many Catholics questioned whether the party any longer represented their values. Republican strategists targeted Northeastern and Midwestern Catholics along with Southern evangelicals on moral values, a tack successfully employed for the first time on the national level by Ronald Reagan in 1980.Since that election a majority of Catholics have voted for the Democratic nominee only once: Bill Clinton in 1996. The once solid Democratic vote of Catholics splintered and then moved increasingly toward the GOP. George W. Bush won a majority of the Catholic vote in 2004 against the Catholic Democratic candidate John Kerry. Bush's improved margin among Catholics in Ohio from 2000 to 2004 was more than the margin of victory in that state, and thus arguably the determining factor in his re-election.As Catholics abandoned their Democratic Party loyalties, the fortunes of the GOP have soared. But the recent heated debates on two issues potentially threaten the relationship between Catholics and the GOP: immigration and, surprisingly, abortion.Immigration overkill Catholic reaction to immigration is easier to explain. A recent bill in Congress entitled the Border Protection, Antiterrorism and Illegal Immigration Control Bill (H.R. 4437) has set off a firestorm of protest. If it had been passed by Congress and signed by President Bush, the law would have made it a crime, punishable by up to five years in prison, for anyone to assist an undocumented immigrant "to remain in the United States." The bill thus criminalized the act of a charitable group giving a meal or an overnight room to an illegal immigrant. Cardinal Roger Mahoney, archbishop of the Los Angeles diocese, and many other church leaders advocated civil disobedience against this bill. For many Catholics, opposition to this bill fits comfortably within the embrace of their faith, which teaches charity and compassion toward those in need. On this issue, the GOP in the House looks badly out of touch with the sensibilities of American Catholics. The response of some Republican leaders and conservative commentators has been to go on the attack. Bill co-sponsor Rep. Peter King, R-N.Y., said that the Church leaders were "committing the sin of hypocrisy" and that rather than oppose his bill, they "should spend more time protecting little boys from pedophile priests." He further declared: "This is the left wing of the Catholic Church--they are frustrated social workers. They're giving an incentive for illegals to come here." Other bill supporters have spoken openly against the Church leadership's stand on immigration, and conservative commentators Tucker Carlson and Lou Dobbs suggested that the Catholic Church possibly should lose its tax-exempt status over its political activism on immigration.The GOP claim to be the right party for Catholics rests only on abortion, vouchers, and public funding for Catholic schools. Beyond those issues the GOP claim falls apart. The immigration debate thus opens a fissure in the relationship between the GOP and Catholics. Perhaps many Catholics who achieved economic success and abandoned the inner cities do not think like their parents and grandparents, but they still remember how the earlier generations of Catholics came to America and thus may still sympathize with the plight of immigrants, especially Latino Catholics.Bush advantage squandered Bush did remarkably well at the polls in 2004 among foreign-born Latino voters, most of whom are religious Catholics. That achievement may now be squandered. And as the protests continue and the immigration issue grows, watch such states as Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada move to the Democratic column, and California truly become out of reach for the GOP. No one can doubt that leaders of the Catholic Church gave moral clout and inspiration for the protests, and now a huge headache for the GOP.Now even the GOP advantage with Catholics on abortion may be being squandered. The new anti-abortion law in South Dakota is intended to challenge the constitutionality of Roe v. Wade. The conventional wisdom is that overturning Roe will be a huge victory for conservative Catholics and a political windfall for the GOP. But as is so often the case, the conventional wisdom is wrong. The South Dakota law does not allow any abortion exceptions, except for the endangering of the life of the woman. Even among religiously conservative people, this law creates serious discomfort.Take the General Social Survey data, which measure public opinion on a variety of issues. Regarding abortion, the GSS survey has asked respondents whether they would permit the procedure under a number of circumstances (threat to the health of the woman, fetal defect, rape, poverty, single woman who does not wish to marry, married couple wants no more children). Using the most recent combined data from 2000 to 2004, only 9 percent of Catholics favor eliminating abortion rights in all cases, and only 8 percent of Catholics favor eliminating abortion in all cases except to protect the health of the woman. Thus, 83 percent of Catholics do not favor a law as restrictive as South Dakota's. And 28 percent of Catholics would allow abortion under any circumstance. Even the most highly observant Catholics do not favor such a restrictive law. Among regular church-going Catholics (nearly every week or more), merely 17 percent oppose all abortions and just another 10 percent would limit abortion only to protecting the health of the woman. Again, about three-quarters of observant Catholics do not favor a law as restrictive as South Dakota's and another 17 percent of this group would allow abortion under any circumstance.The GOP has made remarkable gains with Catholic voters in the past quarter-century. But these gains are potentially threatened by policies that go much too far for large majorities of Catholics. If the GOP continues to be seen as taking too-harsh stands on immigration and abortion, the swing vote in American politics may eventually decide to swing right back to the Democrats. MARK J. ROZELL is professor of public policy at George Mason University and the author of numerous books and articles on the intersection of religion and politics in the U.S. Date published: 4/20/2006
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