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Congressional Report On Katrina: First Look« Thread Started

Daily newsbrief journal for February 2006, also see http://www.usdemocrats.com/brief for a global 100-page perpetual brief and follow twitter @usdemocrats


Congressional Report On Katrina: First Look« Thread Started

Postby admin » Fri Jan 27, 2012 7:41 am

Congressional Report On Katrina: First Look« Thread Started on Feb 21, 2006, 12:59pm » --------------------------------------------------------------------------------FEBRUARY 15, 2006Posted 4 days and 19 hours ago on February 15, 2006 Congressional Report On Katrina: First Look Illustration by Flying-Chilli.comAt 2:00 this afternoon, the Select Bipartisan Committee to Investigate the Preparation for and Response to Hurricane Katrina will release its final report after more than five months of investigation. POPULAR MECHANICS obtained excerpts of a draft copy of the report last night. We've given the report an initial read and found it riddled with poor logic, internal contradictions and exaggerations. This is no 9/11 Commission Report. We’ll have a fuller review once we get our hands on the official copy.Also, here's our March cover story, "Now What? The Lessons of Katrina," an investigative analysis and myth-debunking of this natural disaster.While the 9/11 effort pinpointed large institutional problems and focused on solutions, this report seems designed to narrow attention onto a few individuals, ignoring larger, and frankly more important, issues—such as what role FEMA should actually take in large-scale emergencies. For now, though, here’s a quick overview of what seems to be the report’s most troubling shortfall: consistently blaming individuals for failing to foresee circumstances that only became clear with the laser-sharp vision of hindsight.For example, the report states:"Fifty-six hours prior to landfall, Hurricane Katrina presented an extremely high probability threat that 75 percent of New Orleans would be flooded, tens of thousands of residents may be killed, hundreds of thousands trapped in flood waters up to 20 feet, hundreds of thousands of homes and other structures destroyed, a million people evacuated from their homes, and the greater New Orleans area would be rendered uninhabitable for several months or years."This statistic is referred to often, and refers to computer modeling of a direct Category 5 hurricane landfall in New Orleans. However, it's also a distortion. According to the data the Committee itself examined, 56 hours prior to landfall, Katrina was a relatively weak Category 3 storm, heading west in the Gulf of Mexico. Over the next few hours, it began its turn north, but where the storm was going to make landfall along the Gulf Coast was any weatherman's bet (the average 48-hour margin of error is 160 miles). In fact, it was not until the next day, Saturday, that it became more of a certainty that the hurricane was heading toward New Orleans. Furthermore, hurricane forecasters and emergency managers tell PM that until about 24 hours before landfall, hurricanes are too unpredictable to warrant the sort of blanket evacuation orders the report describes. And according to transcripts obtained by POPULAR MECHANICS of the Sunday, August 28, videoconference between FEMA, DHS, Gulf State authorities, the National Weather Service and the White House, as late as Sunday—only 24 hours before landfall—National Hurricane Center storm tracks predicted: "There will be minimal flooding in the city of New Orleans itself." The death tolls listed in the congressional report presuppose: A) certainty that the storm would hit New Orleans directly, and B) certainty the storm would strengthen to a Category 4 or 5. Neither of these propositions was certain 56 hours prior to landfall. And, in fact, the hurricane was a Category 3 storm when it did hit.The Committee report also criticizes the DHS and FEMA for not including the Department of Defense in their pre-storm and immediate post-storm planning. However, the same August 28 transcript shows that DoD was included from the beginning. In reality, despite organizational shortcomings, the rescue spearheaded by the National Guard and the Coast Guard turned out to be the largest and fastest in U.S. history, mobilizing nearly 100,000 responders within three days of the hurricane’s landfall. While each of the 1072 deaths in Louisiana was a tragedy, the worst-case scenario death toll would have been 60,000. Here's an excerpt from the August 28 transcript:SECRETARY CHERTOFF: (Inaudible.) Yes. Hi, this is Secretary Chertoff. And, again, as it relates to the entire department, if there's anything that you need from Coast Guard or any other components that you're not getting, please let us know. We'll do that for you, OK.MIKE BROWN: I appreciate it. (Missing.) Having been through many of these, the Coast Guard and ICE and all of the others have been incredibly good to us. And I hope we never have to call you and tell you that I can’t get help from the Coast Guard or somebody. Thank you for those comments.SECRETARY CHERTOFF: Secondly, are there any DOD assets that might be available. Have we reached out to them, and have we, I guess, made any kind of arrangement in case we need some additional help from them?MIKE BROWN: We have DOD assets over here at the EOC. They are fully engaged, and we are having those discussions with them now." PM’s quick read also shows that the Committee report relies on testimony from witnesses who share the habit of using post-Katrina knowledge of what actually happened to criticize what seemed like reasonable decisions taken before the storm. From the report:"According to Colonel Jeff Smith, Deputy Director for Emergency Preparedness with the Louisiana Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (LOHSEP), the 'single biggest failure' of the federal response was that it failed to recognize the likely consequences of the approaching storm and mobilize federal assets for a post-storm evacuation of the flooded city. If it had, then federal assistance would have arrived several days earlier." This is the same Col Smith who, when asked by Mike Brown on Aug. 28 if there were any needs going unmet, replied:COLONEL SMITH: Mike, no. (Inaudible) resources that are en route, and it looks like those resources that are en route are going to ... to be a good first shot. Naturally, once we get into this thing, you know, neck deep here, unfortunately, or deeper, I'm sure that things are going to come up that maybe some of even our best planners hadn't even thought about. So I think flexibility is going to be the key.And just as quickly as we can cut through any potential red tape when those things do arise, you know, we just need to look at it. We appreciate your comments. I think they were to lean as far, far as you possibly can, you know, without falling, and your people here are doing that. And that's the type of attitude that we need in an event like this.So, again, thank you very much.We’ll have a fuller analysis once we get our hands on the complete report.--The Editors Re: Congressional Report On Katrina: First LookYes, the words 'get out of town' meant something, that's why we conducted one of the largest evacuations in the history of the US - over one million people evacuated. As this article states, it's impossible to tell where the storm will go up until about 24 hours in advance. Unfortunately if the Mayor had ordered a mandatory evacuation 48 hours prior, and the storm had not hit, the city would've suffered a major economic hit that it couldn't afford. As it was by the time the order was given, many had left, many had no way to get out (N.O. has some of the highest public transit ridership in the country) many had no where to go to, and worse yet, by Sunday the city was virtually out of gas. There are no simple answers for a disater of this magnitude, we can only hope to learn from it.Re: Congressional Report On Katrina: First Lookit is interesting that on NOAA sites, i couldn't find the old storm tracks that i was looking at. past climate does show s.26,s.28 and s.29 satellite images. By looking at sat. pic. for s.28 the storm is still in gulf and no one knew where it was going. I live in poss. storm path so I was watching with interestRe: Congressional Report On Katrina: First LookYou can have all the "science" and "facts" you want or you can say what you feel. You can honestly look at what happened or you can wildly speculate about oil, Bush's alleged (proven! Many sites say so) dislike of blacks and NG units in Iraq. Call me cynical, but the latter seems to be winning. And the point that you went out of your way to debunk the myths only proves to some that there is a conspiracy in the first place, otherwise why would you be so vehement! I am guessing the Re: Congressional Report On Katrina: First LookGreat work exposing the under-reporting of the positive, over-exaggeration of the negative, flawed reasoning in the finger pointing, and contradictions in some of their criticisms. With these guys, it seems that hindsight is not just 20/20, it also leads to hubris. - PajamaHadinRe: Congressional Report On Katrina: First LookExcellent as usual. Exactly what we need to read; the facts with a helping of common sense.Re: Congressional Report On Katrina: First Lookre: the comment that "Louisiana, what were you hearing? Didn't the words "get out of town" mean anything?" We DID evacuate. I evacuated with my family on Saturday in the biggest, most organized evacuation that's been undertaken in this country. (Compare it to the Houston Rita evacuation traffic jam! NO planning! No one got anywhere!) 90% of the city of New Orleans evacuated, and, since about 30% of the pre-Katrina population of New Orleans lived below the poverty level and had no vehicles, many had no choice and paid dearly for it. I lost my home and everything I owned because the government-built levee failed at 20% of the load it was designed to bear. Put blame where it is due. The population of New Orleans has suffered enough. Re: Congressional Report On Katrina: First LookI specifically bought at the airport your magazine for the article Katrina Myths. I have been so disgusted with the lack of objectivity of the majority of the mainstream media MSM to do as William Paley told Ed Murrow.."we don't make the news, we report the news!". Sad to say most of the MSM efforts are politically motivated and the harder they try to make Pres. Bush the bad guy the more they become subjective and less honest. Your objective look at what I consider a total MSM event I hope is entered into the Congressional Record.Re: Congressional Report On Katrina: First LookMy son, a Lt. in the Coast Guard confirms their preparation was far better than has been reported, and that many DOD assets were in place. Once again, the press seems to be searching for a scandal in the wrong place. Perhaps they (the committee) should be looking at the reporting rather than the preparation.Re: Congressional Report On Katrina: First LookHaving an BBS in Meteorology, I have been waiting for someone to point out the obvious: It is as much an art as a science - and the criticisms were from Monday-morning QB's.Re: Congressional Report On Katrina: First LookLiving in Central Florida, watching Katrina go South was a scary experience. Did we have a clue 96 hours before Eastern Landfall? No way. Thank you PM for real reporting. Lousiana, what were you hearing? Didn't the words "get out of town" mean anything? Re: Congressional Report On Katrina: First LookHouse report is up in PDF form at www.katrina.house.govRe: Congressional Report On Katrina: First LookExcellent initial analysis. Hope it gets the media airplay it deserves. Forget the results of any kind of "Bi-partisan" congressional panel. Your work reflects "Non-partisan" at its finest.Re: Congressional Report On Katrina: First LookKeep up the good work of cutting thru the political posturing. Seeing what should have been done is easy when you know what was going to happen. Too bad so many have lost the ability to seperate the past with its unkowable future from the future with its perfect knowledge of the past. We can only change the future and learn from the past. We learn nothing by pointing out failures for political advantage.Add Comment> http://www.popularmechanics.com/blog/sc ... 15386.html
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